Модель прогноза отсутствия постковидных гастроинтестинальных нарушений у детей, перенесших инфекцию COVID-19: ИНФЕКЦИОННЫЕ БОЛЕЗНИ

Анна Владимировна  Полунина; Никита Александрович  Дементьев; Александра Александровна  Тихомирова; Михаил Александрович  Дохов; Ольга Николаевна  Варламова; Александр Евгеньевич  Блинов; Василиса Валерьевна  Дудурич; Светлана Леонидовна  Баннова; Валерия Павловна  Новикова; Алексей Львович  Балашов

doi:10.56871/

A model for predicting the absence of post-COVID gastrointestinal disorders in children who have had COVID-19 infection

INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Anna V. Polunina Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2613-1503
Nikita A. Dementyev Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3837-0984
Aleksandra A. Tikhomirova Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-3860
Mikhail A. Dokhov Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7834-5522
Olga N. Varlamova Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2195-0756
Alexander E. Blinov Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2895-7379
Vasilisa V. Dudurich Cerba Lab Ltd https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6271-5218
Svetlana L. Bannova Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1351-1910
Valeria P. Novikova Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-1709
Aleksey L. Balashov Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University; City Polyclinic No. 56 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1116-3118

Keywords:

COVID-19 children post-covid period functional gastrointestinal disorders prognosis COVID-19 дети постковидный период функциональные расстройства ЖКТ прогноз

Abstract

Introduction.After recovery from COVID-19, many patients experience long-term sequelae known as post-COVID syndrome. The role of changes in the gut microbiota, particularly in relation to gastrointestinal symptoms following COVID-19, is of growing interest, although data on these changes in the post-COVID period remain controversial.Aim— to identify the main predictors of the absence of gastrointestinal symptoms in the post-COVID period in children using clinical, anamnestic, molecular biological, and immunological methods.Materials and methods. A database was created that included over 400 characteristics characterizing general information, clinical presentation, laboratory data, including procalcitonin and CRP levels, 16S microbiota sequencing, zonulin determination, stool PCR for SARS-Co V-2, and analysis of antibiotic and synbiotic prescriptions. The analysis was conducted in two groups of patients. Group 1 included 24 children who developed gastrointestinal symptoms one month after recovery, while Group 2 consisted of 23 patients who had no gastrointestinal symptoms.Results.Using a neural network, five features were identified that predict the absence of post-COVID gastrointestinal symptoms in children one month after recovery from novel coronavirus infection. The sensitivity of the neural network was 95.0%, specificity 87.5%, and accuracy 91.0%.Conclusion.The main predictors of the absence of gastrointestinal symptoms in the post-COVID period in children are the relative proportion of Actinobacteriota less than 0.24 in stool by 16S sequencing one month after recovery, the presence of Actinobacteria species less than 0.1 in stool by 16S sequencing one month after recovery, treatment with a synbiotic for 30 days, normal zonulin levels in stool, and the absence of a history of food allergies.

Author Biographies

Anna V. Polunina, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assistent, Department of Propaedeutics of Children’s Diseases with a course of general child care

Nikita A. Dementyev, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Lecturer, Department of Medical Informatics

Aleksandra A. Tikhomirova, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Cand. Sci. (Economics),Аssociate Professor, Head, Department of Medical Informatics

Mikhail A. Dokhov, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Cand. Sci. (Med.),Аssociate Professor, Department of Medical Informatics

Olga N. Varlamova, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Researcher, Laboratory of “Medical and Social Problems in Pediatrics”, Research Center

Alexander E. Blinov, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Senior Researcher, Laboratory of“Medical and Social Problems in Pediatrics”, Research Center

Vasilisa V. Dudurich, Cerba Lab Ltd

biologist-geneticis

Svetlana L. Bannova, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Cand. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Department of Infectious Diseases in Children named after prof. M.G. Danilevich

Valeria P. Novikova, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Head, Department of Propaedeutics of Children’s Diseases with a course of general child care, Head, Laboratory of “Medical and social problems in pediatrics”, Research Center

Aleksey L. Balashov, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University; City Polyclinic No. 56

Cand. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Department of Propaedeutics of Children’s Diseases with a course of general child care, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University; Chief Physician, City Polyclinic No. 56

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A model for predicting the absence of post-COVID gastrointestinal disorders in children who have had COVID-19 infection: INFECTIOUS DISEASES. (2026). Children’s Medicine of the North-West, 14(1), 169-178. https://doi.org/10.56871/

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A model for predicting the absence of post-COVID gastrointestinal disorders in children who have had COVID-19 infection: INFECTIOUS DISEASES. (2026). Children’s Medicine of the North-West, 14(1), 169-178. https://doi.org/10.56871/

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